Briefing MONTHLY #86 | July 2025

Overlapping gatherings in China this month neatly demonstrated prevailing winds in geopolitics. On the same day that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met Chinese President Xi Jinping, Xi also shook hands with India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Lavrov flew to China after meeting North Korean leader Kim Jung Un.

Our major alliance partner is unpredictable and increasingly demanding. Our biggest export market is ruled by an authoritarian regime that has testy relations with India and likes to keep Russia close. As former DFAT head Peter Varghese opined, "the salad days of Australian foreign policy are over".

Also this month: Political instability in Japan after the long-dominant Liberal Democratic Party lost its remaining majority in the upper house; 72-year-old Cambodian strongman Hun Sen looms large amid deadly border clashes; and the Tibet succession crisis-to-come. (See NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH).

At an ASEAN meeting, Foreign Minister Penny Wong put some meat on the bones of the government’s “renewed energy” in Asia that has stirred up some opposition at home. (See ASIAN NATION).

Finally, we’re throwing forward to next month with short briefs on upcoming events and developments (See NEED TO KNOW).

Emma Connors
Briefing MONTHLY acting editor

As of July 29, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is still in power. Just. It was a shocker of a month for the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, which lost its majority in the upper house, after losing the lower house last year. And while the country rejoiced a few days later when Japanese negotiators finally landed a much sought-after tariff deal with the US, it could hasten change at the top. Political stability was paramount during the negotiations. Now the deal is in the bag, Ishiba could be done too.

As the dust settled, local media were reporting Ishiba will resign in August. What is certain is that the country is set for months of tumultuous government. The startling wins by right and centre-right minor parties show the zeitgeist has shifted. Anti-immigration, anti-globalisation and anti-establishment policies are now vote winners in Japan, as well as the US and some European countries.

The LDP and its coalition partner the Komeito party no longer have the numbers to pass legislation, and the opposition is more splintered than before. That means multiple negotiations will be needed to get bills through. That won’t be easy. The big winners in the election included Sanseito, whose leader says he was inspired by Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) and France's National Rally (RN). The centre-right Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) that also scooped up seats has pledged “never to co-operate with Ishiba’s administration, which doesn’t keep its promises”.

Both these parties want the government to reduce the burden on workers by reducing the consumption tax that helps fund welfare payments for the country’s ageing population. These measures would increase Japan’s already high debt burden and could spook rating agencies and bond markets.

When Cambodia is in the news, so is Hun Sen. This was true in the 1980s and it’s still the case now with Cambodian and Thai militaries clashing on the border between the two countries.

Officially Hun Sen is President of the Cambodian Senate. His son, Hun Manet, who took over as Prime Minister two years ago, was the target of diplomatic efforts to bring about a ceasefire after days of cross-border fighting. In late May though, it was Hun Sen who took a phone call made with a similar intent after the violence first flared. It came from the-then Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. On the call, Paetongtarn addresses Hun Sen as "uncle", a term of respect for a man who was close to her father for decades.

Paetongtarn was trying to tamp down violence that had broken out near the Preah Vihear UNESCO-listed temple in Northern Cambodia, close to the border with Thailand. The two countries have bickered over territory in this area for more than a century, after the border was drawn following the French occupation of Cambodia. In the late May fighting, a Cambodian soldier was killed by Thai soldiers.

That 17-minute call cost Paetongtarn the top job after a leaked audio recording of it was posted online. Hun Sen denied the widespread assumption that he had leaked the audio clip – though he was quick to confirm its veracity. Soon after, 36 Thai Senators filed a petition with the Constitutional Court, arguing the exchange showed a lack of responsibility and integrity and put the country’s sovereignty at risk. The Court suspended Paetongtarn as PM.

So, when Hun Manet travelled to Malaysia for ceasefire talks, he met with acting Thai Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai – who briefly filled the chair in August last year as well. Seasoned observers of Thai politics expect more upheaval soon.

Paetongtarn’s father Thaksin Shinawatra has also loomed large. Hun Sen used to boast about his “30-year friendship” with Thaksin, the telco entrepreneur who became a Thai Prime Minister himself and then saw his youngest sister in to the top job for a stint, years before Paetongtarn had her turn.

But now Hun Sen and Thaksin have fallen out. Hun Sen has even accused Thaksin of faking poor health to “deceive the Thai people” and avoid court proceedings on various charges. These include claims Thaksin defamed the Thai King a decade ago. That case was finally heard this month.

Some say Hun Sen wants to boost his popularity at home with a hard-line stance by heaping blame on Thailand for the border violence. From his exile in France, Cambodia’s opposition leader Sam Rainsy believes it’s more about money. He told Nikkei Asia that Hun Sen’s regime depends on cash from Chinese-run cyber-scam operations on the border, operations Thailand is attempting to stamp out.

While the reasons behind the personal ructions remain opaque, Thailand’s political turmoil is apparent for all to see. The PM’s suspension came just weeks after a major partner walked from the coalition cobbled together by the Pheu Thai Party, the latest version of the Thai Rak Thai Party founded by Thaksin. It’s hard to see it limping on until the next election due in 2027.

Now the world is paying attention after border skirmishes escalated into air strikes. The worst fighting in years was sparked by a clash in territory bordered by Thailand’s Surin province and Cambodia’s Oddar Meanchey. At least 33 people died, including six civilians in a strike on a petrol station, as the violence spread to two more Thai provinces. Thailand said Cambodia triggered the crisis by deploying military drones to spy on Thai troops. Cambodia maintained it was Thai soldiers who advanced into contested territory, breaching a previous agreement.

Thaksin accused Hun Sen of ordering his generals into Thai Territory. And the weekend before the ceasefire, Hun Sen posted photos of himself, surrounded by military personnel and maps.

On May 4, the Dalai Lama wrote to Anthony Albanese, congratulating him on his election victory. This month the Australian Tibetan community urged the Prime Minister to raise the contested issue of who will succeed their spiritual leader during Albanese’s meetings with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. They were disappointed.

The American and Indian governments have spoken up after the Dalai Lama confirmed at celebrations for his 90th birthday that, after he died, he would be reincarnated as the next leader of Tibetan Buddhism.

The spiritual leader said the search for his successor will be carried out by senior monks, a repeat of the process that identified him as the 14th Dalai Lama. He was just two years old when he reportedly exclaimed "It’s mine!" when presented with items owned by his predecessor.

This is not what Beijing says will happen. It has its own procedure for reincarnating living Buddhas and the central government makes the final decision.

The Dalai Lama’s preference was announced via a pre-recorded video broadcast at the start of a three-day festival in Dharamshala in Northern India, where he has lived in exile since Beijing crushed an uprising in the Tibetan capital in 1959. 

During the celebration, a birthday message from the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio was read that supported Tibetans’ “ability to freely choose and venerate religious leaders without interference”.

A senior Indian government minister also spoke at the festivities and relayed greetings from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Beijing was displeased. A spokeswoman for the Chinese embassy in India described the issue as a “thorn” in relations. She said the reincarnation and succession issue is “inherently an internal affair of China, brooking no interference from any external forces”.

There is no middle path, according to professor and author Dibyesh Anand. He told The Diplomat: “This will be an unprecedented crisis of legitimacy, for neither side – Tibetans nor Beijing – will have the possibility of negotiations, let alone compromise, in the future.”

The call for Albanese to raise the issue face to face was backed by leader of the Tibetan government in-exile in India, Penpa Tsering, who was in Australia from July 11-17.

Also in favour was LNP politician, Andrew Wallace, who represents Queensland’s Fisher electorate.

“It is disappointing that the Prime Minister failed to raise Tibet during his recent meeting with President Xi,” Wallace said.  “In 2024, I led a bipartisan Private Members’ Motion condemning the Chinese Communist Party’s forced assimilation of Tibetan children and ongoing human rights abuses."

“The motion had rare cross-party support and called for Australia to stand in solidarity with Tibetans and urged China to engage in meaningful dialogue, but no action was taken or even promised by the government. The motion lapsed when Parliament was dissolved. If this Government is serious about human rights, it should speak up where it matters most,” he said.

Not even spiritual leaders live for ever, at least in a temporal sense. The Tibetan succession drama is one more area where Australia is destined to disagree with China – though for now, Canberra is keeping quiet.

In 2020, there was an informal ban on European wine in Indonesia. Jakarta was angry about the high tariffs the European Union had slapped on palm oil imports – and even more bothered by plans to ban the versatile oil altogether in coming years. There was nothing written down but Muslim-majority Indonesia is not a big drinking country, the government knew the main importers, and they knew it didn’t want them buying European wine.

Now all is forgiven. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto was in Brussels on July 13 to pose with EU chief Ursula von der Leyen as they announced a “political agreement” for a trade deal. The final document, expected in September, is tipped to eliminate tariffs on 80 per cent of goods and services – including palm oil. The EU has already agreed to relax some aspects of its anti-deforestation law, that requires palm oil growers to prove their crop did not contribute to forest clearing. The documentation required will be simplified, and compliance procedures reduced for countries judged to be low risk.  For its part, Indonesia will be “flexible” about its requirement that some components of goods had to be produced locally.

The EU has also resumed long-stalled negotiations with Malaysia and Philippines.

From Brussels, the well-travelled Prabowo went to Paris after being invited to celebrate Bastille Day by his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron. While he was there, US President Donald Trump announced a tariff deal with Indonesia. Opinion differs on whether it was a win-win but Prabowo was ahead in the race to wring an agreement from the White House ahead of the August 1 start date for its reciprocal tariff regime. Deals to date suggest big countries are getting off lighter than smaller nations some of whom – like Cambodia – are particularly dependent on the US for export dollars.

China: In May the US and China agreed to reduce reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods to 30 per cent from 145 per cent and Chinese tariffs on American goods to 10 per cent. These are not the only imposts on Chinese imports with the 20 per cent fentanyl tax still in place and some other duties hanging over from Trump’s first term. The 90-day reprieve on the reciprocal tariff is supposed to expire August 12 but will probably be extended.

Vietnam: The US will impose a 20 per cent tariff on Vietnamese goods, down from the 46 per cent flagged on April 1. Trade analysts say that given Vietnam effectively paid 9.4 per cent duties before the new regime began, it’s only going to pay an additional 10.6 per cent, close to the base rate that the US is applying across the board.  A higher rate – 40 per cent – will apply to goods judged to have been trans-shipped, or manufactured outside Vietnam but passed through there. Hanoi has fast-tracked approval of a $US1.5 billion proposal from the Trump Organization and a partner to build golf courses and other properties.

Indonesia: A landmark trade deal will give American exporters market access to Indonesia “once considered impossible”, according to the White House. Indonesia has pledged to remove taxes on 99 per cent of US imports, boost its intake of energy and agricultural goods and also buy 50 Boeing jets. In return, the Trump administration will drop its new duties on Indonesian imports from a threatened 32 per cent to 19 per cent.

Japan: Just days after his party’s poor showing in upper house elections, Japan PM Shigeru Ishiba had some good news for the country – and nervous investors worldwide. The US and Japan had struck a deal that meant most Japanese goods imported by the US – including cars – will be subject to 15 per cent duties. In Tokyo, Ishiba said this was the lowest rate applied to any country that has a trade surplus with the US. Since April 3, the US has levied a 27.5 per cent tariff on Japanese auto imports and until the deal was done, exporters were facing a blanket 25 per cent impost on all other goods. The US negotiators booked some big wins. Japan will allow more rice imports from the US and has also pledged to invest $US550 billion through state backed institutions. Exactly how all this will work is unclear, as is the start date for the new tariff regime.

Nevertheless, the deal lifted equity markets in Japan and the US, as did the agreement struck with the EU, also for a 15 per cent tariff.

The Philippines: President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr became the first South-east Asian leader to meet Donald Trump in an effort to reduce what Marcos described as a “very severe tariff schedule on the Philippines”. He did get a reprieve, but a relatively minor one, with Trump announcing he had dialled down the 20 per cent reciprocal tariff to 19 per cent.
 

South Korea: No reprieve from the 25 per cent tariff announced in April. South Korea has long counted on the US in both trade and defence - now both are looking a bit wobbly. There are persistent reports out of Washington that a defence review underway will recommend reducing the number of American troops stationed in the country. South Korea’s huge trade surplus with the US – which reached a record $US55.6 billion last year, thanks mostly to car imports – makes it a prime example of what the US President believes is a global trading system tilted against America.  

Malaysia: The threatened reciprocal tariff rate was increased in early July from the 24 per cent to 25 per cent. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has come out swinging. In the control seat of ASEAN this year, Anwar has pushed for stronger economic integration in South-East Asia. So far, his ASEAN partners have put their trade relationship with the US first.

Thailand faces a 36 per cent tariff, as does Cambodia. Trump has told the two countries there will be no progress on trade talks until armies retreat on the contested border.

Australia: US importers of Australian goods are paying the default 10 per cent the White House imposed on most goods in April. Our steel and aluminium imports have been subject to a 50 per cent tariff since early June, up from the 25 per cent announced in March.

Trump has also threated to slap a 200 per cent tax on imported pharmaceuticals. This follows years of lobbying by American companies. Thanks to the US-Australia foreign trade deal signed 20 years ago, there are no tariffs on US exports to Australia. Yet American pharma companies insist Australia’s Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme is “egregious and discriminatory”. The PBS forces these companies to negotiate prices with a single buyer – the Australian government. Both Labor and the Opposition have said there will be no changes made to the PBS.

Canberra did agree to a key Trump demand by giving US beef exports the green light, removing blocks first put in place to keep mad cow disease away. In theory, US beef has been allowed into Australia for the last five years. In practice, bans on meat sourced or slaughtered elsewhere have got in the way. Those obstacles have been cleared. Prime Minister Albanese says the issue was resolved after a 10-year investigation and was not a political decision.

Prime Minister Albanese’s speech honouring a Labor great of the past – the John Curtin oration – received a lot of coverage, particularly from those critical of foreign policy they believe is alienating the United States. In the speech, Albanese doubled down on his regional focus. Calling out his government’s work on relationships in Asia and the Pacific, the PM said “Labor governments understand “that Australia’s security and our prosperity depend on engaging with our region, as ourselves”.

Foreign Minister Penny Wong also gave a significant speech during a visit to Kuala Lumpur for an ASEAN Foreign Ministers meeting. The Malaysian-born Senator detailed how the government was injecting “new energy into regionalism”. She suggested delicately that it was okay to disagree with the Americans sometimes. The Senator also underlined her government’s commitment to the Labor “tradition of believing Australia must find its security in Asia, not from Asia”. Where the United States has cut aid in the region, Australia is stepping up in Timor-Leste, Laos, Vietnam and Indonesia, Senator Wong said. She noted three quarters of our development budget is spent in the Indo-Pacific.

Those in the sector know Australia’s aid spending as a percentage of the Federal budget has been falling for decades. The ANU’s DevPolicy’s aid tracker shows a steady slide from 1970-71, when aid accounted for 2.39 per cent of the budget, to 0.65 per cent in 2025-26.

Nevertheless, at the ASEAN gathering the speech had an impact thanks to the contrast it provided to what’s going on in Washington. The ASEAN meeting came just days after President Trump sent letters to heads of state regarding the loathed reciprocal tariffs. From a diplomatic point of view, even if the US wanted to lean in, the demolishing of US AID and staff cuts at Department of State have removed expertise and experience. At the ASEAN meeting, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio pushed back against claims the US was pulling back from the Indo Pacific and South-east Asia. While “wars get more attention, this is where much of the story of this century will be written. Where 2/3 of economic growth is going to happen over next 25 to 30 years,” he said. The next week, the Washington Post reported the staff who had co-ordinated the Secretary’s trip and drafted his talking points had been fired.

Back home, Shadow Foreign Affairs Minister Senator Michaelia Cash accused the PM of putting the Australia-United States alliance “on the backburner” ahead of his China tour. The Prime Minister has pointed out several of his predecessors in the top job - Tony Abbott, Malcolm Fraser and Kevin Rudd also visited Beijing before going to Washington. His critics are having none of that, and seized upon the Curtin speech as proof that the government has cooled on the alliance.

Liberal Party elder and former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer wrote The Australian the Curtin speech had confirmed his “worst fears”. “We are retreating. We’re becoming critical commentators not contributors to the security of free peoples."

In The Australian Financial Review, former DFAT head Peter Varghese described the China visit as “a necessary recalibration” of our foreign and strategic policy but warned much more would be required. In his framing there are two main challenges. Firstly, we need “to bury the notion” that Australia is incapable of defending itself. Secondly, we need to decide what part we will play in constraining “China's ambition to be the hegemon of the region”.

The long-contentious leasing of the Port of Darwin to a Chinese-owned firm was not raised during Albanese’s China visit but commentary at the time provided some insight.  

Labor has pledged to force Landbridge to sell the asset if it doesn’t so voluntarily though it’s more likely the company, that operates the Port under a 99-year lease, will accept the inevitable. At least one buyer is circling. The Australia-founded logistics giant Toll Group – now owned by Japan Post – is preparing a joint bid with US private equity group Cerberus Capital Management. Another potential buyer is IFM Investors which represents Australia’s industry super funds and competed against Landbridge for the asset in 2015.

The Lowy Institute’s Richard McGregor believes Beijing could retaliate if the sale appears to be forced. He notes Chinese companies have extensive interests in ports around the world – more than 100 ports in about 50 countries. “They do not want a precedent set in Australia that could be followed around the world.”

SunCable is hoping to raise $US100 million ($153 million) from private investors to fund its hugely ambitious plan to deliver solar power from Australia to South-east Asia. Media reports suggest the company has been knocking on doors for three months now. SunCable has denied the fundraising is behind schedule. The company says “discussions are advanced with a couple of parties” to help finance solar and battery storage and a transmission network to deliver up to 6 GW of renewable power from the Northern Territory to Darwin and Singapore.

The Australian government is still a believer. It has renewed the venture’s major project status, which simplifies regulatory processes for big-ticket initiatives. Singapore is also a cautious supporter. Last year it gave SunCable conditional approval to import electricity to the city-state. That won’t happen for at least a decade though and, as the spectacular bust-up between SunCable founders Andrew Forrest and Mike Cannon-Brookes showed two years ago, anything could happen between now and 2035.

Across the world, tools once used to generate growth are now wielded to pressure, isolate and contain. Tariffs, export restrictions, and investment barriers have now become the sharpened instruments of geopolitical rivalry. This is no passing storm. It is the new weather of our time.
   - Malaysian PM Anwar Ibrahim, July 11, Kuala Lumpur

While I painfully feel my serious responsibility over the election results, I believe I must also fulfil my responsibility I bear for the country and the people so as not to cause politics to stall or go adrift. Challenges such as global situation and natural disaster won't wait for a better political situation.
   - Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba July 21, Tokyo

It’s absurd that non-scientific trade barriers prevented our beef from being sold to consumers in Australia for the last 20 years. Gone are the days of putting American farmers on the sidelines. 
   - US Agriculture Minister Brooke Rollins, July 23, Washington

Attitudes toward China have become more positive in many countries in the last year, according to a major survey by the US-based Pew Research Centre.

However, relatively few countries prioritise economic ties with China over the US. One of these is Australia, though this is a relatively recent development. Just over half of Australians quizzed by Pew (53 per cent) say it is more important for their country to have close economic ties with China, versus the 42 per cent who favour the US. When Pew asked the same question in 2021, 52 per cent of Australians thought we should prioritise the US, while 39 per cent nominated China. When you look at the trade data for recent years, it’s perhaps a sign that perception has caught up with reality.

Indonesia and South Africa were the only other two countries in the Pew research who put economic ties with China ahead of the US. But it could be we are early movers. In nearly all high-income countries where the same question was asked in 2021 and 2025, views have moved in the direction of China. South Korea was the sole exception.

August 17: Indonesia will celebrate 80 years of freedom. Independence Day – Hari Kemerdekaan Republik Indonesia - is always a big event across the archipelago; this year it’s going to be huge. On August 17, 1945, Indonesian nationalist forces led by figures including Sukarno declared independence after almost 350 years of Dutch rule. Then came four years of armed struggle. The Netherlands formally recognised Indonesian sovereignty along with the rest of the United Nations on 27 December 1949. Australian diplomat H.V. Evatt helped lobby the cause of the nascent nation.

August 22: The Thai Criminal Court is due to rule on whether former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra defamed the king in a television interview a decade ago. Under the country’s severe lese majeste laws, a guilty finding could result in a 15-year jail sentence. Thaksin is also due to hear the outcome of an investigation into whether an extended hospital stay was justified on heath grounds or taken to avoid prison.

By the end of the month, the country’s Constitutional Court is due to rule on whether his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra can resume her role as Prime Minister.

August 31: Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to travel to China. Expect close analysis of any joint statement released after Putin meets with the Chinese leader. The last time the two met in China in May last year, they pledged a “new era” of partnership and raged against the United States’ “non-constructive and hostile policy of so-called dual containment” against China and Russia.

Briefing MONTHLY is a public update with news and original analysis on Asia and Australia-Asia relations. As Australia debates its future in Asia, and the Australian media footprint in Asia continues to shrink, it is an opportune time to offer Australians at the forefront of Australia’s engagement with Asia a professionally edited, succinct and authoritative curation of the most relevant content on Asia and Australia-Asia relations. Focused on business, geopolitics, education and culture, Briefing MONTHLY is distinctly Australian and internationalist, highlighting trends, deals, visits, stories and events in our region that matter.

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