Briefing MONTHLY #90 | November 2025

Over the past seven years, Briefing MONTHLY has evolved into a wide-ranging, timely review of key developments in Asia. We are grateful to our readers who have helped make it one of the most widely-read monthly briefings on Asia.

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Every now and then there’s an image that gives one pause. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese aboard HMAS Canberra, announcing a treaty, was one of those occasions (see ASIAN NATION).

It wasn’t just that Indonesia’s tradition of non-alignment makes treaties tricky. Or that this one specifies the same mutual obligations agreed to three decades ago, only to be torn up a few years later.

The really startling factor was that it was Prabowo, the former general who was banned from the United States for years and not welcome in Australia either, with the PM behind the microphones on the fleet flagship of the Royal Australian Navy. Prabowo famously reinvented himself as a cuddly national benefactor in the run-up to his sweeping victory in the 2024 presidential race. A year into his presidency, he’s morphed again (see NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH).

It’s hard to avoid US President Donald Trump – even when he’s not there. At the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, the absence of high-level representation from the US made the Leaders’ Declaration something to talk about, rather than file away as one more communique.

And back in our neighbourhood, Washington’s determination to break China’s stronghold in rare earths and critical minerals also played a role in Korean steel giant POSCO’s billion-dollar-plus investment in Australian lithium mines (see DEALS & DOLLARS). The White House wanted the G20 Summit to fail. It didn’t get its way. But efforts to build an alternative supply chain are influencing resource plays all over the world.

Thanks for reading.

Emma Connors
Briefing MONTHLY acting editor

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People regularly lose their life savings after making friends with the wrong people online – and frequently the overtures originate in Southeast Asia, where scamming is a growth industry. Often those forced to run through the scripts to fleece victims are foreign nationals, lured by fake job ads to disused casinos or purpose-built facilities in ASEAN’s poorer countries.

This month saw the conviction of Alice Guo, a Chinese national who managed to get elected mayor of a Philippines city while running a massive gambling and cybercrime operation. She’s been sentenced to life for human trafficking, with other charges pending.

The compound she operated in a town north of Manila is typical of its kind – swimming pools and luxury accommodation for the owners, and hundreds of trapped workers. This model has proved so successful that Asian scam operators are expanding into Africa and Latin America.

Last month signalled a big win for law enforcement agencies when the US zeroed in on the Prince Group, locking its Cambodian-based financial services arm out of the US financial system with sanctions on 146 targets including Prince chairman Chen Zhi.

Left behind in the US are billions of dollars in bitcoin that authorities could use to compensate victims of what US Attorney Joseph Nocella called “one of the largest investment fraud operations in history”. Prosecutors said that at one point Chen Zhi bragged that the so-called “pig-butchering” scam was pulling in $US46 million a day. The “pigs” are luckless victims, coaxed into online relationships where they are convinced to “invest” increasingly large sums until they press the alarm button or empty their bank accounts.

Regulators and police in the UK, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore also acted, freezing assets and severing access to bank deposits for entities and individuals linked to the Prince Group and Chen Zhi. In London, properties seized included a £12 million mansion, a £100 million city office block and 17 apartments.

BBC journalist Jonathan Head penned this profile on Chen Zhi, the baby-faced businessman and criminal mastermind who moved to Cambodia from China about 15 years ago and became so very wealthy so very quickly.

Singaporean authorities believe their country is a particular target for scammers because it’s richer than its ASEAN neighbours (including Australia by GDP per capita). In a nation with a total population of 6.1 million (and just 3.6 million citizens), there were more than 190,000 scam cases reported in the last five years with losses of more than $S3.8 billion ($4.5 billion).

Penalties for related crimes now include discretionary caning in Singapore. Scammers, syndicate members and recruiters can get between six to 24 strokes of the cane, depending on the severity of the crime. Their “mules” – those who sell bank accounts, SIM cards or ID credentials – can get up to 12 strokes.

The prospect of a flogging may deter some from stepping onto the lower rungs of these criminal enterprises but it’s not going to make much difference higher up. Co-ordinated action to cut access to laundered funds as demonstrated against the Prince Group can at least stymie key players like Chen Zhi.

China has opted for harsher treatment. This month a court in Guangdong province sentenced five senior members of the Bai mafia family to death. Prosecutors say the Bai clan ran 41 scam operations in Kokang region, near the Myanmar-China border.

In recent days the US has followed up last month’s raids with the creation of a Scam Center Strike Force “to secure America against South-East Asian cryptocurrency-related fraud and scams”. But as long as people look for friendship online, the “pig butchering” will continue.

The United Nations has warned syndicates are expanding to new jurisdictions with limited experience in scam centre responses, including Timor Leste. Papua New Guinea and other areas of the Pacific with “weaker regulatory oversight” are also likely targets. The UN concludes this expansion indicates “how lucrative the industry has remained”.

Also in Singapore, the People’s Action Party government has begun the process to transform the family home of the country’s founding prime minister Lee Kuan Yew (LKY) into a national monument. From London, LKY’s youngest son Lee Hsien Yang is opposed to the government’s plan, which he believes goes directly against his father’s wishes. His only brother Lee Hsien Loong, who stepped down as Singapore’s PM last year after two decades in the top job, has previously supported preserving the property.

The two brothers have not spoken for a decade, according to Lee Hsien Yang. Their only sister Lee Wei Ling died last year.

In his will, LKY stated the house should be razed when it was no longer required by his daughter. The demolition clause was present in Lee's first four wills, removed from the fifth and sixth, and reinstated in the seventh. All his children accepted their father strongly wanted the house demolished. They disagreed over whether he had come around to another point of view.

The former PM declined to respond to media queries this month and has not made any public statement since recusing himself in 2017 from government decisions about the house. Correspondence made public through court proceedings suggested the oldest sibling believed his father had “accepted that notwithstanding his personal wish that the house be demolished, there was public interest in preserving it and the government was likely to do that”.

The dispute has sparked various parliamentary inquiries and legal actions. In 2022 Lee Hsien Yang and his wife were questioned by police investigating perjury claims. The couple left the country soon after and have not returned since. Last year Lee Hsien Yang was granted asylum in the UK. The Singaporean government denies his persecution claims and said the country’s legal system was impartial and makes decisions independently.

In 2024 a Black Dot Research poll suggested Singaporeans have had enough. A majority thought the government should not be involved in resolving what most judged to be a private issue over the property’s future. The government’s recent actions suggest this wish is unlikely to be granted.  On November 3, a National Heritage advisory board declared the site had “strong national significance worthy of preservation” and noted the “modest buildings contrast with the impactful and consequential decisions taken there”. As the Straits Times noted, the PAP has won every general election in Singapore since 1959 – when the party conducted its campaign largely out of Oxley Road.

On November 10 Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto bestowed the nation’s highest civilian honour on former president Suharto (also spelt Soeharto), who led the country for three decades to 1998.

The designation of Suharto as a National Hero was always going to provoke a mixed response. Bloomberg columnist Karishma Vaswani was among the many critics, writing “the decision to celebrate Suharto is being sold as an attempt to reconcile with history. It’s not. It’s a reminder that when nations forget their authoritarian pasts, they risk inviting them back”.

The Suharto era was marked by repression, corruption and violence, including mass killings and imprisonment. While many human rights activists, religious leaders and academics have condemned the national hero designation, there has been no mass public outcry. 

“Most people don't really care unfortunately,” says Yohanes Sulaiman, an associate professor of international relations at Jenderal Achmad Yani University. “Many look at his era as a beacon of stability and economic growth, and don't really see why [the national hero designation] is such a big deal.”

Under Suharto, who crushed the Communist party, broke with China and made friends with the West, foreign investment poured into the nation and GDP grew by an average of 7 per cent each year.  But it was a crony economy riddled with corruption and flattened by the Asian financial crisis. The mass unemployment and deadly riots that followed forced Suharto’s resignation in May 1998.

However, Suharto was never prosecuted for any crime and after his death in 2008 was given a state military funeral with full honours, with the government declaring a week of national mourning. His rehabilitation continued last year when the Parliament repealed legislation that accused Suharto and his administration of corruption.

One illustration of the conflicting values and perverse outcomes of the Suharto regime can be found in the famed forests of Borneo, where there is a national park named in his honour in East Kalimantan. This rundown comes from Orangutan Foundation International, a leading conservation group:

Suharto had 31 years as President to leave his mark on the nation. While Prabowo has only been in power for one, it’s clear that nurturing a liberal democracy is not a priority. This episode of the Ear to Asia podcast featuring Professor Tim Lindsay from the Melbourne Law School and Murdoch University’s Dr Ian Wilson is a deep dive into the key domestic and foreign policy developments in the Prabowo presidency to date. For an on-the-ground report on the costly, ambitious and problematic school meals program, watch this ABC news segment.

Meanwhile, from his viewpoint in West Java, Yohanes Sulaiman has a neat summary of the parallels between the current President and his former father-in-law. “Democracy is a messy process with a lot of stakeholders. For Suharto and Prabowo, it is much easier to give commands.”

In the days leading up to a lightning Australian visit by the Indonesian President on November 12, his foreign minister was playing it down. Prabowo and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would speak of bilateral co-operation, Minister Sugiono told reporters, noting “discussions at the head-of-state level are generally broad …”

So, it was a surprise when the two leaders stood on HMAS Canberra and announced a new security treaty based on a mid-1990s pact that caused shock waves at the time. While the final text of the Treaty on Common Security is still to be signed, it will even use some of the same language as the earlier document. It will commit Australia and Indonesia to consulting each other in the case of “adverse challenges to either party or to their common security interests” and consider either an individual or joint response.

Just to underline the symmetry even further, after the joint press conference with Albanese, Prabowo met with former PM Paul Keating who signed the 1995 agreement with then-President Suharto. While Keating was triumphant at the time, the treaty alarmed many on both sides of politics in Australia.

As Alan Dupont noted in an essay in The Australian Quarterly in 1996, the Liberal-National Party claimed the pact left open “the possibility that Australia ight become embroiled in Indonesia's internal affairs” and even then-Foreign Minister Gareth Evans had conceded the wording was “a little ambiguous”.

Dupont suggested “the somewhat curious English wording of the phrase ‘adverse challenges’, and its studied vagueness, strongly suggests that it was inserted at Jakarta's request, to allay any criticism that the Agreement is a military pact, or is directed at any particular state.”

Three years after the Keating government was voted out came the violent culmination of Timor-Leste’s long struggle for independence. For decades, Canberra had not opposed Indonesia’s claims to what was then East Timor. This changed in 1999 when Australia led a UN-based peacekeeping force there. Jakarta saw this as an abrogation of the 1995 agreement.

The new pact suggests the bilateral relationship is currently in good shape. But future disagreements are inevitable. In a (paywalled) interview with The Australian’s Amanda Hodge, former Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa said the treaty should have had a clause that committed both nations to resolve bilateral disputes through dialogue and negotiation.

“This notion of a situation that may threaten the security of one or the other can cover all kinds of scenarios, and given Australia’s rather expansive definition of its security beyond its own shores we have to ready ourselves. On the other hand, Australia has to ready themselves for our definition of a security threatening situation which could be quite internal …” Dr Natalegawa said.

The Albanese government was clearly chuffed to have landed the deal, especially in the context of its work to build out security links across the region. It has already landed agreements with Papua New Guinea, Nauru and Tuvalu and is working on pacts with Fiji, Tonga and Vanuatu, Foreign Minister Penny Wong noted in a speech at the Australian Institute of International Affairs (AIIA) National Conference.

In a paean to regionalism, Wong said that while Australia will always contribute to multilateral efforts to protect civilians and uphold international law around the globe, its main focus is the Indo-Pacific because “our overriding responsibility as a middle power is to support peace, stability and prosperity in this region”. The Lowy Institute Asia Power Index suggests China has made some gains in that contest in the last year while Australia has lost ground. The going will stay rough, she warned. “The disruption – the contest – is permanent. China will continue trying to reshape the region according to its own interests.”

Amid the geopolitical cut and thrust, there was a lighter moment in the bilateral relationship at the International Import Expo in Shanghai where The Australian Financial Review’s Jessica Sier reported six pinups from the 2026 Australian Firefighters Calendar were a hot item.

The annual fundraising effort (there are now a few different versions of the calendar, all featuring burly firefighters) attracts buyers from all over the world. This year’s sales are likely to skew toward Asia if social media is any guide. In just a few hours, views on China’s Little Red Book jumped from just a few thousand to 10 million after the firefighters made their debut. “I didn’t realise we’d turn into diplomats while we were here,” said David Rogers who first dreamt up the calendar on the Gold Coast back in 1993 and is determined to push the brand into Asia this year.

“But we can sell a lot of calendars here and raise a lot of money. We’ve proven we can do it in other markets, and we can direct a lot of money into grassroots charities, where it goes a long way.”

A few weeks later there were Aussie firefighters in Hong Kong where once again crowds flocked to see them, including at the famous Kee Wah Bakery (above).

Prime Minister Albanese made a side trip from APEC at the end of last month to visit South Korean steel giant POSCO. He was the first PM to pop in since John Howard more than 20 years ago. POSCO is the largest private sector buyer of Australian resources, snapping up more than $7 billion worth every year. It’s also involved in extraction and processing, partnering with resource companies across Australia.

At the Pohang steel plant, the PM saw where shiploads of Australian iron ore and coking coal end up. Much of modern South Korea has been constructed with POSCO steel in the years since it opened its first mill in 1968. Three years ago, the parent company announced POSCO Holdings would manage the group’s shift to an “eco-friendly materials provider”. Among other resources, it’s investing in lithium, a key component in technologies needed for the clean energy transition. POSCO is building a soup-to-nuts supply chain that spans continents, going from raw material extraction through to downstream processing.

Soon after the PM’s visit, Australia’s Mineral Resources (MinRes) announced POSCO Holdings was buying into its Wodgina and Mt Marion lithium mines in WA.

The two companies are already linked through the Onslow Iron project in the same state. In return for its $US765 million ($1.19 billion), POSCO Holdings will have what equates to a 15 per cent share in each mine and 270,000 tons of lithium concentrate per year, sufficient to produce 37,000 tons of lithium hydroxide, enough for about 860,000 electric vehicles. The first-of-its kind investment by a major Korean company into Australian lithium could also ensure Albanese is not the last PM to visit POSCO at home.

I have to sing My Way – there will be no more sitting at the negotiation table. As for trade or tariff negotiations, I no longer care. If we can't sell to this country, we'll find others.
- Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul in response to a White House threat to revert to higher tariffs if the Thailand and Cambodia ceasefire does not hold. National Defence College of Thailand, Bangkok, November 13

We don’t just live here. We aren’t just residents. We are architects. And for the past three and a half years we have been building Australia’s future in our region
- Foreign Minister Penny Wong, AIIA National Conference, Canberra, November 17

It is shocking that Japan's current leaders have publicly sent the wrong signal of attempting military intervention in the Taiwan issue, said things they shouldn't have said, and crossed a red line that should not have been touched.
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in a statement on the Chinese Foreign Ministry website, November 23

New research suggests a surprisingly small percentage of China’s lending and grant-giving goes toward funding Belt and Road projects in developing countries. In fact, more than three-quarters of the $US2.2 trillion pie goes to upper-income nations – led by the United States. That’s the conclusion of AidData, based at the William & Mary university in Virgina, US. The researchers found China is pulling back from providing aid for philanthropic reasons and increasingly aligning its international lending with policy priorities. To this end, loans to wealthy countries are funding infrastructure and critical minerals. Beijing is also directing funds to the acquisition of high-tech assets, including semiconductor companies. Much of this lending goes from institutions such as the Bank of China to fund mergers and takeovers but still, wrote AidData executive director in The Economist, “The irony is rich. America has spent much of the past decade warning other countries of the dangers of accumulating significant debt exposure to China.”

December 6: Playoff draw for FIFA World Cup 26. FIFA has increased the number of participating teams from 32 to 48 nations. Asia now has eight spots, up from four. Australia, Iran, Japan, Jordan, Uzbekistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and South Korea have qualified. New Zealand is the Oceania qualifier.

December 7: Hong Kong’s Legislative Council election. Some 90 members will be appointed but only 20 will be elected by everyday Hongkongers. In 2012 and 2016, half of the then 70 Council members were elected by voters in the geographical constituencies they represented. This changed in 2021 when Beijing increased the power of the Election Committee and the Functional Constituencies that represent various economic sectors. All candidates have to be vetted to ensure only ‘patriots’ are in the running.

Pre-democracy activist Ted Hui, who was granted asylum by the Albanese government in August, has described the upcoming vote as  “a sham election utterly detached from the public” and said it “deserves to be boycotted.” Hong Kong authorities have warned there will be “zero tolerance” for such activity and have already arrested four people for allegedly posting or reposting boycott calls on social media.

(1) While there are fears China will impose a ban on rare earth exports as the diplomatic dispute heats up, so far this has not transpired.

(2) Thaksin is serving a one-year term after being ordered back to prison in September following past convictions, but this latest court ruling is not related. In August, he was acquitted of lese majeste charges – though the Attorney General is appealing this decision. It was Thaksin’s sister, former PM Yingluck Shinawatra who was ordered to pay damages related to a rice scheme.

(3) The new mine in Guinea’s Simandou mountains that’s tapping into a massive source of high-grade iron ore was guided jointly by the Chinese and Guinean governments. Two consortia are collectively spending $US23.3 billion on mines, railways, bridges and ports. One is led by Rio Tinto, the other is a joint venture between Singapore-based Winning International Group and Weiqiao Aluminium, part of the China Hongqiao Group, and Baowu Resources.

Briefing MONTHLY is a public update with news and original analysis on Asia and Australia-Asia relations. As Australia debates its future in Asia, and the Australian media footprint in Asia continues to shrink, it is an opportune time to offer Australians at the forefront of Australia’s engagement with Asia a professionally edited, succinct and authoritative curation of the most relevant content on Asia and Australia-Asia relations. Focused on business, geopolitics, education and culture, Briefing MONTHLY is distinctly Australian and internationalist, highlighting trends, deals, visits, stories and events in our region that matter.

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