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Briefing MONTHLY #91 | December 2025

Turbulent Thailand | BM quiz | Student power moves markets | Tariffs take a toll | Shipbuilding boom | Holiday reading picks

Asia Society Australia

•

30 min read

Illustration by Rocco Fazzari.

TUMULTUOUS YEAR END

Thai politics has long been chaotic and 2025 was no exception, with the jailing of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and a judicial coup that removed his daughter from the top job. On December 12, caretaker PM Anutin Charnvirakul dissolved parliament ahead of a February 8 election. Meanwhile, the Thai military is in charge at the country’s contested border with Cambodia, ready to resume fighting. A December 27 ceasefire could prove to be as fragile as the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord struck just a few months ago (see NEIGHBHOURHOOD WATCH).

The Albanese government has finally given South Korean giant Hanwha the green light to up its stake in shipbuilder Austal – though Japan has expressed concerns (see DEALS & DOLLARS). Like other suppliers of military kit, Austal is on a tear with revenues up 24 per cent and profits soaring in the last fiscal year. Janes Defence Budgets predicts defence procurement in this region will increase by about 40 per cent in the next decade after a massive ramp up in recent years.

Earlier this month, Canberra upped assistance to South and South-East Asian countries to $14 million after weeks of flooding and landslides. In Indonesia alone, some 800,000 people were displaced in Aceh. Indonesia Red Cross is appealing for help.

As per tradition, this edition includes a guide to 20 books related to Asia released by Australians this year. There are memoirs, geopolitics, a clutch of World War Two-related tomes – as befits an 80th anniversary year – a variety of fiction, and a couple of cookbooks to leaven the mix.

Finally, a reminder that, as foreshadowed last month, Briefing MONTHLY is shifting to a paid subscription model. To ensure we continue to provide a high quality, ad-free product, we will be charging $A2.99 a month from January. You don’t have to do anything yet – we’ll prompt you to subscribe.

Many thanks for reading in 2025 and we wish you a safe and peaceful holiday break. We are all aware of the terrible shooting at Bondi Beach. In coming months, we might look at regional reverberations from this tragedy. For now, pausing in sadness seems the right thing to do.

Kind regards

Emma Connors
Briefing MONTHLY acting editor

Christmas at the Jakarta Cathedral
(Photo: Jakarta Provincial Govt)

BRIEFING MONTHLY QUIZ

1. Which nation will chair ASEAN next year and why?

  • (a) The Philippines – stepping up a year early after ASEAN leaders decided to bypass Myanmar
  • (b) Timor-Leste – new members traditionally take charge in their first full year
  • (c) Vietnam – next in line in the rotating leadership
  • (d) Malaysia – term has been extended to deal with Thailand-Cambodia border conflict

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2. Who will become Australia’s ambassador to Japan in early 2026?

  • (a) Jeff Robinson
  • (b) Stephen Smith
  • (c) Andrew Shearer
  • (d) Kathy Klugman

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3. The Year of the Snake ends on February 16. What is the 2026 animal in the Chinese Zodiac?

  • (a) Goat
  • (b) Monkey
  • (c) Pig
  • (d) Horse

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4. Australia will host which major sporting event next year?

  • (a) AFC Women’s Asian Cup
  • (b) Winter Olympics
  • (c) Commonwealth Games
  • (d) Nations Rugby Championship Finals

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5. Who revealed a liking for Australian rock band INXS this month?

  • (a) US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth
  • (b) India’s Minister of External Affairs S. Jaishankar
  • (c) UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper
  • (d) Singapore’s Minister for Foreign Affairs Vivian Balakrishnan

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NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH

THAILAND: Don’t mention the law

On Christmas Eve, Cambodian and Thai defence officials succeeded where their foreign ministers had failed by agreeing to halt fighting on their shared border for 72 hours. That gave the country’s two defence ministers time to negotiate a ceasefire that came into force on December 27. It if holds, Thailand will release 18 Cambodian soldiers. In the three weeks since fighting resumed on the long-contested border, hundreds of thousands have been forced to leave their homes. Thailand says 26 soldiers and one civilian have died in combat, and reports another 44 “collateral” deaths. Cambodia, which has not detailed military casualties, says 44 civilians have died and 90 injured. US President Donald Trump, who claimed credit for ending hostilities earlier in the year with the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord, was not involved in the latest negotiations. Beijing has stepped up its involvement, hosting Cambodian and Thai foreign ministers for talks to strengthen the ceasefire.

Meanwhile Thailand’s political parties are in election mode. The February 8 poll is earlier than anticipated, prompting some to speculate the PM believes the border dispute will help him hold onto power even though his party is not expected to come near a majority. Pheu Thai is hoping to revive the Shinawatra political dynasty by making Yodchanan Wongsawat its top pick for PM. His father is former PM Somchai Wongsawat and his mother Yaowapa Wongsawat is the younger sister of party founder Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thai lower house seat distribution

Source: Asia Nikkei, Secretariate of Thailand’s House of Representatives

The progressive People’s Party is the successor to Move Forward that won the most seats in the 2023 election, but was prevented from taking power by the country’s courts and forcibly dissolved. The People’s Party is now treading gingerly around Thailand’s strict lese majeste laws. Unlike Move Forward, it is not seeking to change these. However, it is sticking by the party’s 44 former MPs who are at risk of persecution for previously calling for amendments to the relevant section of the penal code. The Thai Constitutional Court ruled their campaign was an attempt to destroy the country’s democratic order with the King as head of state. A fascinating French documentary, Rama X: The Mysterious King of Thailand was added to SBS On Demand this month.

ECONOMIC STATECRAFT: Beijing v Washington

Asian countries were miffed in the run-up to the 2016 election in the US when presidential nominee Hillary Clinton dropped her support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Obama-backed initiative to open up trade. Clinton did a U-turn on the proposed pact when the Democrats realised it was not a vote winner at home.

A decade on, every nation is adjusting to the reciprocal tariffs levied by the second Trump administration after it declared a national emergency in response to the US trade deficit. President Trump has raised the price of access further by demanding investment. Japan is on the hook for $US500 billion ($818 billion), South Korea for $US200 billion.

Malaysia, where GDP per capita is less than one sixth that of the US, has promised $US70 billion in new investment. Malaysia has also agreed to a “poison pill” clause. This allows the US to tear up the agreement if Malaysia signs a trade deal with a rival power – such as China. Indonesian President Prabowo is expected to sign a trade agreement with Trump in January. Indonesia insists it has not caved on the poison pill clause, saying “there are no clauses that limit Indonesia’s sovereign economic policies”. The US is the fifth largest source of foreign investment for Indonesia, ranking behind Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Malaysia. Cutting off any one of these would be disastrous.  

If Washington’s demands are potentially harmful for others, what about itself? The 2025 edition of the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index includes a new indicator, economic statecraft, to measure the “efficacy of a country’s leader in advancing his or her country’s economic interests globally”.

China was ranked first, followed by Singapore, Japan, Vietnam, the US and then South Korea. This result suggests “experts are cautious about whether [reciprocal] tariffs were likely to be a net positive for US interests”.

ASIAN NATION

Caught up in a global academic rebalancing

For decades, international students have been the biggest group arriving in Australia as temporary migrants. Recent ABS data shows international student arrivals fell by 23 per cent in the last financial year to 157,000. There are more continuing students at universities than those in their first year, so this decline will take a while to trickle through to the total number on student visas. This was holding steady at 833,041 as of October. However, as the migration data suggests, new enrolments are dropping off.

This is due in part to Federal government actions to crack down on fraudulent visa applications and tamp down overall migration – which fell 14 per cent in 2024-25, the ABS data shows.

But the global market in which our education exports compete is also changing. Students are looking beyond the traditionally favoured destinations of the “Big Four”: Canada, the United States, the UK and Australia. They are increasingly looking to Asia – which is why Australian universities are rushing to establish or increase their presence in the region.

 Australia’s International Students

*Primary student visa holders  **Vocational Education and Training (Source: RBA)

Data from the India’s Ministry of External Affairs shows 1.25 million Indian students were enrolled in foreign universities or other major institutions this year. That’s down from 1.33 million in 2024 and it’s the first decline in three years. Visa approvals this year by the US for Indian students are way down. Canada’s cap on international enrolments will continue to have an impact. Postgraduate enrolments in the UK are booming but total international student enrolments are down.

Meanwhile more Indian and Chinese students are choosing to study in the Middle East or Asia, where universities are rapidly ascending world rankings. They also offer increasing numbers of English-taught programs and lower living costs than the Big Four. The QS rating agency says a “rebalancing of global academic influence” is underway.

Asian goods manufacturers have to keep export channels open to the US, usually their biggest buyer. But in services, including education exports, it’s a different story.

DIPLOMATICALLY SPEAKING

It has been proven in practice that efforts to choke China cannot succeed.
- China President Xi Jinping, Central Economic Work Conference Dec 10-11, Beijing

DEALS AND DOLLARS

Good times for shipbuilders

South Korean giant Hanwha waited a long time for Treasurer Jim Chalmers to approve its bid to increase its stake in the government’s designated ship builder Austal. While the Foreign Investment Review Board found in favour after a 10 month review, others are more circumspect. When Canberra announced it had chosen the Japanese Mogami-class frigate to replace its Anzac-class models, Defence Minister Richard Marles stressed Australia’s “very close strategic alignment with Japan”. But letters leaked to The West Australian made it clear Tokyo had concerns about Hanwha upping its stake in Austal to 19.9 per cent. South Korea is Japan’s long-time rival in global shipbuilding. Eight of the 11 new frigates are expected to be built by Austal. Would sensitive information find its way back from Austal’s Henderson shipyard in WA to Seoul?

Last year Austal rebuffed a takeover bid from Hanwha, but as a publicly listed company it can not prevent Hanwha from upping its stake once the Treasurer has given the all clear. Now Austal waits to see if, when and how Hanwha follows up on its stated intent to seek a board position and to collaborate on new work. In a statement, Austal said it would closely review the “opportunities and risks” associated with any pitches from Hanwha for additional partnerships on shipbuilding opportunities. Perhaps with an eye to Tokyo, Austal said relevant factors would include “feedback from design partners and board discussions of ‘sensitive national security topics’”.

There could be some tense conversations ahead, given there’s likely to be plenty of new business. The Albanese government is funding a $12 billion upgrade at Henderson which will be intergrated with HMAS Stirling to create a major hub for naval shipbuilding and maintenace.

In late November the precinct got a taste of what’s to come when the USS Missouri docked for four weeks at HMAS Stirling. It was the first time a nuclear-powered submarine had undergone maitenance in Australia without a US support ship. While pundits will continue to debate exactly when Australia will take delivery of its own nuclear-powered subs, AUKUS is already transforming WA – and it’s just one reflection of the increased defence spend across the region.

The USS Vermont departs HMAS Stirling on November 28.
(Photo: Australian Submarine Agency)

NON-FICTION

BOMBARD THE HEADQUARTERS! THE CULTURAL REVOLOUTION IN CHINA by Linda Jaivin (Black Inc)

Jaivin has won widespread praise for distilling into a little over 100 pages a turbulent, tumultuous decade. The short history format was specified by the UK publisher and with some judicious plucking, Jaivin conveys the big narrative, the key players at the top – Mao, Jiang Qing and so on – and brings to life the impact on ordinary people. Along with the big sweep, we get the details. These include the title of the Peter Sellers film that British diplomats watched as they drank claret and waited to see if their Mission would be stormed by the Red Guard. As Jaivin told an interviewer, “It’s not the most important detail of the Cultural Revolution, obviously – but it’s such a great one”.

MELANESIA: TRAVELS IN BLACK OCEANIA by Hamish McDonald (Black Ink)

McDonald has been telling Asia-Pacific’s stories for four decades, so it’s no surprise this deep dive into the group of islands that stretches from Fiji to New Guinea combines reporting grit with sharp contemporary analysis. The Albanese government says Australia is a “permanent contest” with China to be the partner of choice for Pacific nations, but few Australians know much about our near neighbours’ sense of themselves. McDonald travelled from one end of Melanesia to the other for this book and does an impeccable job of passing on what he learned.

CHINA'S GRAND STRATEGY AND AUSTRALIA'S FUTURE IN THE NEW GLOBAL ORDER by Geoff Raby (Melbourne University Publishing)

Raby’s second book in as many years was released only four months into the second Trump presidency, but captures the zeitgeist nicely. The former Australian ambassador to China gives his take on how Australia should navigate an increasingly alarming international outlook. Russia’s war in Ukraine has ground on for close to four years, there’s a quixotic leader in the White House, and China remains our biggest trading partner, our most serious security threat, and a constant source of conjecture. How should Australia approach a more aggressive China under Xi Jinping? Raby believes many overstate China’s ambitions for global domination and sets out his views on what Beijing really wants and how Australia should respond.

THE CONTESTED STATE: THE INDONESIAN BANK RESTRUCTURING AGENCY DURING THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS by Matthew Busch (Melbourne University Publishing)

Indonesia’s Reformasi period is endlessly fascinating. So much changed so quickly during the late 1990s with the end of Suharto’s era and the Asian Financial Crisis. This book tells the story through the lens of the Indonesian Bank Restructuring Agency (IBRA), the subject of the author’s PhD at Melbourne University. Source material includes previously unpublished audits of the agency done after the IBRA was wound up in 2004. The relatively slim volume, at just 192 pages, sheds new light on the IBRA’s radical actions including nationalising two of Indonesia’s largest private banks – and the world’s biggest shrimp farm.

SURVIVAL IN SINGAPORE: ELIZABETH CHOY, OPERATION JAYWICK AND THE BATTLE FOR TRUTH IN CHANGI by Tom Trumble (Penguin)

This book lives up to the cover blurb that promises “a gripping account of an untold story of Japanese-occupied Singapore”. I was hooked from the first page. Operation Jaywick was a bold attack by Australian WW2 commandos who planted limpet bombs on ships in Changi Harbour and returned home undetected. Canberra opted not to take advantage of the propaganda value in order to try and repeat the subterfuge. This reticence resulted in imprisonment and torture in Singapore for the men – and woman – thought to have been involved in the covert attack. Trumble does an amazing job recreating the experiences of the key characters in this wartime drama that took place so close to home.

BLAMEY: THE STORY OF AUSTRALIA’S GREATEST GENERAL by Brent Taylor (ABC Books)

As General Sir Peter Cosgrove writes in his foreword, there has been a lot of “jaundiced opinion” about General Sir Thomas Blamey, who led the Australian Army though World War Two. One of the best-known stories about Blamey is that he accused some diggers of running “like rabbits” in fighting on the Kokoda Track. While the veracity of this account is questionable, there were other accusations of drinking and womanising, fraud and corruption. Taylor acknowledges Blamey was a flawed hero but argues it is his military contribution that should define his legacy. He argues Blamey’s greatest achievement was saving tens of thousands of diggers’ lives by avoiding defeats and adroitly “managing up” under first British, and then American, command.

BORNEO: THE LAST CAMPAIGN by Michael Veitch (Hachette Australia)

On July 1, 1945, the first Australian troops arrived on the jungle island of Borneo in Operation OBOE, one of the largest amphibious invasions of World War Two. Veitch details the Allied politics behind the campaign – what General Douglas MacArthur wanted, he got – and has mined Battalion histories to recreate what it was like to fight an enemy teetering on total defeat but who refused to give up. There were 80,000 Australian troops involved in OBOE and 2000 casualties, yet its strategic value was questionable. This, along with war fatigue, helps explain why it never became part of our national folklore like other campaigns.

MEMOIRS

THE CURIOUS DIPLOMAT: A MEMOIR FROM THE FRONTLINES OF DIPLOMACY by Lachlan Strahan (Monash University Publishing)

For outsiders, diplomacy will always have the whiff of a Graham Greene mystery. Strahan lifts the curtain in this entertaining and informative memoir. His three decades at DFAT included stints in South Korea, India and the Solomon Islands at times of crisis. He was in Seoul when US intelligence sources gave the Bush Administration the ammunition it needed to abandon 1994’s Agreed Framework that had contained North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Northeast Asia suddenly seemed to be on the brink of war. Australia’s Foreign Minister at the time, Alexander Downer, decided to send a five-person team to the Hermit Kingdom to put Australia’s position. The trip left indelible impressions on Strahan. He was in India when the student crisis prompted widespread anger toward Australians. And in 2022, Strahan was in the Honiara hot seat when the shock announcement of a security pact between the Solomon Islands and China made foreign policy a key election issue at home.

GUTS by Melissa Leong (Murdoch Books)

Leong is a first-generation Singaporean Australian who grew up in the Sutherland Shire which was hardly a beacon of multiculturalism in the 1980s. She recalls being conspicuous and not in a good way; “teachers would pretend not to hear Ching Chong Chinaman being whispered when I walked past”. Her professional life began in digital advertising and wound through journalism and broadcast media until she got properly famous as the first female judge on MasterChef Australia, a gig she describes as a “set of golden handcuffs”; a great opportunity but also limiting. What shines through is her very Singaporean-like appreciation of good food that survived white suburbia and became a professional asset.

THE GOOD DAUGHTER by Kumi Taguchi (Simon & Schuster)

Taguchi is a journalist, broadcaster and presenter whose Japanese father was distant and reserved in her early years growing up in Melbourne. After her parents divorced, he was largely absent through her teens and early 20s. This memoir recounts Taguchi’s quest to get to know him, including travelling to Japan after his death to learn about his early life. She re-examines the Japanese heritage that as a child she had often tried to push away. This is a story about identity, about what you are told as you grow up, tracking down missing pieces, and assembling your own sense of yourself.

MEMOIR OF FREEDOM by Cheng Lei (HarperCollins)

You undoubtedly know her name. For more than three years, successive Australian governments campaigned for the release of Cheng, the Chinese-born Australian journalist who was detained by Beijing on false charges of espionage. Now you can read her story of imprisonment, of being cut off from her children and despairing at the absurdity of her conviction. Among many interrogations and searches into every nook and cranny of her life, the best prosecutors could come up with was a text message to a friend that broke the embargo on a government document – except her version of events is that document had no embargo on it. This book is many things; an insight into the power of China’s national security apparatus; a lesson on how to survive long, long stretches of enforced solitude; and an insight into what happens after release, an experience Cheng compares to being a newborn.

POETRY

JOSS: A HISTORY by Grace Yee (Giramondo Publishing)

This collection is a tribute to the 60,000 Cantonese who migrated to Australia during the mid to late 19th century and the long arc of the Chinese diaspora spanning Sydney to Bendigo, Beechworth, Omeo, Daylesford, Dimboola and Melbourne, where Yee lives. “let’s languish on little bourke street: the longest continuous / chinese settlement in the western world”, she writes in the poem with two black dates for sweetness. In Yee’s words, JOSS aims to both “unsettle the stories that perpetuate the tropes and stereotypes” of early migrants and shed some light on some “lesser-known histories”.

COOKING

THAI ANYWHERE AND EVERYWHERE by Nat Thaipun (Hardie Grant Books)

According to celebrity chef Jamie Oliver, Thaipun has “already helped shape the future of Australian food”, which is quite a plaudit since few would have known her before she won MasterChef Australia last year. This truly is a wonderful cookbook though – and you don’t need a professional kitchen or even a sous chef to enjoy the recipes. In the introduction, Thaipun writes of growing up between two cultures, “Australian on the outside, Thai on the inside”. At home, her parents insisted we “live like we were still in Thailand. We spoke Thai, we learned to read and write and, most importantly, we cooked and ate like Thai people”. We owe her parents a vote of thanks.

LUCKY DRAGON SUPPER CLUB by Stephanie Feher (Murdoch Books)

Feher is an Australian-born cook with a Chinese-Hungarian background who established the Lucky Dragon Supper Club during the pandemic to share recipes with family and friends. Her first book is a mix of staples like dumplings and chicken rice to mash-ups like sticky date cake with miso butterscotch sauce. The emphasis is on dinner party cooking with suggestions ranging from meals for two to extensive supper club spreads.

FICTION

FIERCELAND by Omar Musa (Penguin Books)

This sweeping family saga begins in the city of Kota Kinabalu, capital of Sabah in Malaysian Borneo. It’s a laid-back kind of place often referred to simply as KK. It’s also where Penny Wong was born and while geopolitics is not front of mind for the KK family at the heart of this novel, the politics of development casts a long shadow. Roz and her brother Harun are the children of Yusuf who has made his fortune in palm oil. The high environmental cost of this crop that grows monotonously across large tracts of Malaysia and Indonesia is well known. As they grow up, the siblings respond in different ways to their father’s legacy. The Australian-Malaysian author is also a poet and rapper and his language is distinctive.

WHAT KEPT YOU? by Raaza Jamshed (Giramondo Publishing)

This novel begins with an Australian bushfire and goes on to make many shifts in time, place and form. Key to the story is Nani, the grandmother who was the central figure in the narrator’s - Jahan’s  childhood in Lahore, Pakistan. Nani was the one who “who authored the roles in our origin stories”, Jahan recounts. All these stories were set in pre-partition India. “India to us was an insatiable monster, always enroute, always jumping over a wall on its bloated feet, lurching towards us; India to you spelled the home you could never return to, the one you left behind at the time of the Indian subcontinent’s butchering”. Like her protagonist Jahan, the author migrated to Australia from Pakistan.

THE PRINCE WITHOUT SORROW by Maithree Wijesekara (HarperCollins)

Debut author Wijesekara is an Australian-Sri Lankan writer based in Melbourne. Graduating with a Master’s degree in Dentistry, she says she “splits her time between telling people to please brush their teeth, and writing stories inspired by the fantastical and the real world”. This book is the first in a planned trilogy inspired in part by the Mauryan Empire of Ancient India. It features an Emperor angered by the inexplicable crumbling of iron ore, needed for steel. While it’s hard to imagine our political leaders burning witches like Wijesekara’s Emperor Adil, you can imagine how such a problem would send modern Australia into a spin.

UNTIL THE RED LEAVES FALL by Alli Parker (HarperCollins)

There’s a lot going on in this work of historical fiction. The central character Emmy Darling’s real name is Emiko Tanaka and her family’s experiences – including internment – in Australia during World War Two are central to the plot. Many women reading this will have reason to be glad they don’t live in 1950s Melbourne. This is the second novel by Japanese-Australian author Parker whose debut work told the story of her grandmother, the first Japanese war bride to arrive in Australia.

UNFINISHED BUSINESS by Shankari Chandran (Hardie Grant)

British-Australian writer Chandran’s latest novel is set in Sri Lanka in 2009. The action predates the economic crisis that sparked widespread protests and ultimately broke the Rajapaksa family’s grip on power in real life in 2022, but the country’s tumultuous post-civil war power plays are key to the plot. The action follows CIA agent Ellie Harper, who’s been sent to investigate the murder of journalist of Ameena Fernando. A thriller with bite.

THE NARROW ROAD TO THE DEEP NORTH by Richard Flanagan (Penguin)

If you’re looking for a book to tuck into your cabin luggage, you can’t go past this new edition of Flanagan’s masterpiece that won the Booker Prize in 2014. The Prime Video mini-series of the same title that aired this year also may have found new readers for this story of World War Two prisoner of war Dorrigo Evans, his experiences building the Burma Railway and his life before and after. As The Economist notes, Flanagan is “considered by many to be the finest Australian novelist of his generation”.

ABOUT BRIEFING MONTHLY

Briefing MONTHLY is a public update with news and original analysis on Asia and Australia-Asia relations. As Australia debates its future in Asia, and the Australian media footprint in Asia continues to shrink, it is an opportune time to offer Australians at the forefront of Australia’s engagement with Asia a professionally edited, succinct and authoritative curation of the most relevant content on Asia and Australia-Asia relations. Focused on business, geopolitics, education and culture, Briefing MONTHLY is distinctly Australian and internationalist, highlighting trends, deals, visits, stories and events in our region that matter.

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