Briefing MONTHLY #94 | March 2026

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Rising prices, shortages, looming recession: The spiralling impact of the Middle East conflict this month has been reminiscent of March 2020, when COVID 19 went from a scary flu in China to a paralysing global pandemic frighteningly fast.

Compared to Europe and the US, Asia is the biggest importer of Gulf oil and liquefied gas fuels so it the most exposed to the energy shock triggered by Iran restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Australia, which depends on refined fuels from Asia, is feeling the ripple effects as regional refiners face supply constraints. Across the region, nations are rationing petrol, asking people to work from home, limiting the number of days school operate, and urging everything from shorter showers to reduced use of air-conditioning. Japan and South Korea can draw on large strategic reserves, but most Southeast Asian nations cannot, leaving fishing fleets, transport operators and airlines exposed (see NEIGHBOURHOOD WATCH).

Suddenly Europe seems far away as the spiralling cost of jet fuel has prompted some global airlines to warn they will be cutting costs to destinations in South and Southeast Asia to avoid their planes getting stranded.

In other news, we bring you the tale of the cyber-scam money man who is leading law authorities a merry dance, a new era for Nepal, and an update on the Jakarta treaty and what it means for our complex relationship with our closest major northern neighbour. To catch up on all of this and more, please consider subscribing. Thanks to those readers who have already done so, we value your support.

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Emma Connors
Briefing MONTHLY editor

Singapore police this month joined Thai authorities in the chase to shut down South African finance whizz Benjamin Mauerberger who’s believed to have helped launder large sums for billion-dollar scam factories operating in the region. On March 9, the Singapore Monetary Authority arrested two directors of Capital Asia Investments firm connected to Mauerberger after Singapore police seized more than S$160 million ($180 million) in cash thought to be the proceeds of fraud. This came after Thai police obtained warrants for Mauerberger – who also goes under the name Ben Smith – and his wife, who had both fled Thailand some months before. Thailand’s Anti-Money Laundering Office seized 13 billion baht ($575 million) in assets related to Mauerberger and two others, including a Cambodian senator. It will likely take scam victims years to get any of their money back – if they do. On March 5, Thailand’s caretaker PM Anutin Charnvirakul got involved, telling police to work with Interpol to get a red notice, effectively an alert to the world that Mauerberger is now an international fugitive

The investigation presents a few headaches for Anutin after a 2014 photo surfaced showing him with Mauerberger who mixed widely in Thai’s elite circles. This photo was posted by a TV anchorman who has attested to its veracity, unlike another image circulating online that’s an AI created fake.

Anutin also likes to blame neighbouring Cambodia for housing the region’s sophisticated scam networks and rejected a 2024 New York Times story that suggested Thailand was a key location for industrial-scale cyber fraud. Political rivals went on to accuse Anutin of dragging his feet on related investigations, a claim he is keen to dispel.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reporters who cracked open the 1MDB fraud have been tracking Mauerberger for years. They now believe he and his wife, a former Thai model, are living aboard a luxury yacht in the Seychelles. The couple were keeping a low profile in Dubai after leaving Thailand in October and left the Gulf in late February, just before US strikes on Iran sharply increased risks for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. You can read the full details of the investigation here.

If you have an idle moment, and are interested in checking up on the fugitive’s whereabouts, you can join the many tracing Wanderlust on the MarineTraffic site.

India’s cooking‑gas shortage has become one of the most visible symbols of the global energy shock. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) – the fuel that powers street vendors, small restaurants and millions of households – has seen demand surge in recent years as the government encouraged families to shift away from wood‑burning stoves for health and environmental reasons. Domestic production has barely shifted, leaving India increasingly dependent on imports.

Nearly 60 per cent of India’s LPG is imported, and most of it normally transits the Strait of Hormuz. With Middle East shipping routes disrupted, prices for the standard 14.2kg cylinder have jumped, but the more acute problem is availability. Long queues have formed across multiple states, and black‑market prices have doubled.

The National Restaurant Association of India warns that shortages of commercial LPG are already forcing closures and could trigger a wave of “catastrophic” shutdowns across the sector.

The industrial fallout is equally stark. In Gujarat, ceramics factories in Morbi – which produces around 80 per cent of India’s ceramic exports – have halted operations due to shortages of propane and natural gas, affecting an estimated 400,000 workers.

The crisis has sharpened political tensions at home, with several state elections looming.  Unlike most nations, however, India has friends on both sides of the conflict. It's one of Iran’s major trading partners, and PM Modi is also on good terms with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. On 13 March, Modi called Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian seeking a safe passage for 28 Indian ships stranded near Hormuz.

A week later, Bloomberg reported the Iranian Navy had guided an Indian LPG tanker through the strait. While Western-linked vessels face heightened risks from drone or missile attacks, Iran appears ready to grant passage to "friendly" or neutral nations (like India, China, and Pakistan) after diplomatic vetting. Tehran is also reportedly considering passing legislation to formalise a fee-for-safe passage regime.

It’s hard to unsee the moment when US President Donald Trump joked about Pearl Harbour while sitting beside the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during her Washington visit. However, given Trump had lashed out at Japan for not helping out just a few days earlier, the general verdict was the meeting was a success. The US President didn’t repeat his request for Japanese warships on camera and the rest of the Summit went as planned, with both sides finalising trade and investment discussions and reaffirming co-operation on energy security.

Japan is almost entirely dependent on imported oil and is competing with others for shrinking supplies of Middle East exports. By March 22, the spot price for Dubai benchmark crude had more than doubled since the war began.

Japan’s strategic oil reserves – 254 days’ worth of supply – have cushioned the immediate shock, but Tokyo is now accelerating diversification efforts. In Washington, Takaichi said “diversifying procurement sources will lead to a stable energy supply for Japan and Asia”. To this end, Japan and the US have agreed to co-operate on funding increased US crude production.

Meanwhile, confusion persists over whether Japan is negotiating with Iran for safe passage of its stranded vessels. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Kyodo News he had discussed the issue with his Japanese counterpart, but Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi publicly denied Japan was engaged in unilateral talks.

The ABC revealed the first ship bound for Australia to come from the Persian Gulf since the war started was a Japanese-owned bulk carrier that transited the strait while broadcasting "CHINA OWNER" from its transponder.

Japan is, however, very public about looking to its long-time LNG supplier: Australia. With about 40 per cent of Japan’s LNG coming from Australian projects, Tokyo has asked Canberra to boost output as Middle Eastern LNG flows remain disrupted. At the Indo‑Pacific Energy Security Ministerial in Tokyo, Resources Minister Madeleine King stopped short of promising additional supply but reiterated that Australia has “never missed an LNG shipment to Japan” and will honour all contracts.

South Korea enters this crisis from a more exposed position than Japan. The country’s economic engine is built on heavy industry, petrochemicals and advanced manufacturing – sectors that are among the most energy‑intensive in the world. With roughly 70 per cent of its crude oil normally sourced from the Middle East, the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has hit Seoul with unusual force.